Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →51.7%
Swindon
22.7%
Draw
25.5%
Fleetwood Town
Expected Goals (xG)
1.73
Swindon
vs
1.14
Fleetwood Town
Markets
BTTS55.5%
Over 0.594.8%
Over 1.577.6%
Over 2.554.8%
Over 3.532.5%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-1
10.7%
1-0
10.3%
2-1
9.7%
2-0
8.5%
0-1
6.9%
1-2
6.4%
3-1
5.6%
2-2
5.5%
0-0
5.2%
3-0
4.9%
0-2
3.7%
3-2
3.2%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).