Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →55.8%
Almeria
22.0%
Draw
22.3%
Vallecano
Expected Goals (xG)
1.91
Almeria
vs
1.13
Vallecano
Markets
BTTS57.6%
Over 0.595.3%
Over 1.580.6%
Over 2.558.7%
Over 3.536.3%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-1
10.2%
2-1
9.9%
1-0
9.2%
2-0
8.7%
3-1
6.3%
1-2
5.8%
3-0
5.6%
2-2
5.6%
0-1
5.5%
0-0
4.7%
3-2
3.6%
0-2
3.0%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).