Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →50.7%
Castellon
22.4%
Draw
27.0%
Malaga
Expected Goals (xG)
1.87
Castellon
vs
1.31
Malaga
Markets
BTTS61.7%
Over 0.596.0%
Over 1.582.6%
Over 2.561.7%
Over 3.539.4%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-1
10.1%
2-1
9.5%
1-0
7.9%
2-0
7.3%
1-2
6.7%
2-2
6.2%
3-1
5.9%
0-1
5.5%
3-0
4.5%
0-0
4.0%
3-2
3.9%
0-2
3.6%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).