Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →51.1%
Arouca
25.7%
Draw
23.2%
Alverca
Expected Goals (xG)
1.71
Arouca
vs
1.08
Alverca
Markets
BTTS55.1%
Over 0.593.0%
Over 1.577.7%
Over 2.552.9%
Over 3.530.7%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-1
12.2%
2-1
9.7%
1-0
9.6%
2-0
8.9%
0-0
7.0%
1-2
6.1%
0-1
5.7%
3-1
5.5%
2-2
5.3%
3-0
5.1%
0-2
3.6%
3-2
3.0%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).