Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →48.4%
Ponferradina
29.4%
Draw
22.2%
Alcorcon
Expected Goals (xG)
1.24
Ponferradina
vs
0.74
Alcorcon
Markets
BTTS36.9%
Over 0.586.3%
Over 1.558.7%
Over 2.531.7%
Over 3.513.9%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-0
17.3%
0-0
13.7%
1-1
12.5%
2-0
10.7%
0-1
10.3%
2-1
7.9%
1-2
4.7%
3-0
4.4%
0-2
3.8%
3-1
3.2%
2-2
2.9%
4-0
1.4%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).