Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →22.4%
Lugo
30.5%
Draw
47.1%
Numancia
Expected Goals (xG)
0.71
Lugo
vs
1.18
Numancia
Markets
BTTS35.1%
Over 0.585.0%
Over 1.556.2%
Over 2.529.3%
Over 3.512.3%
Most Likely Scorelines
0-1
17.9%
0-0
15.0%
1-1
12.5%
1-0
10.9%
0-2
10.5%
1-2
7.5%
2-1
4.5%
0-3
4.1%
2-0
3.8%
1-3
2.9%
2-2
2.7%
0-4
1.2%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).