Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →42.9%
Villarreal B
30.2%
Draw
27.0%
Alcorcon
Expected Goals (xG)
1.15
Villarreal B
vs
0.84
Alcorcon
Markets
BTTS38.8%
Over 0.586.5%
Over 1.559.0%
Over 2.532.1%
Over 3.514.1%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-0
15.8%
0-0
13.5%
1-1
13.1%
0-1
11.6%
2-0
9.0%
2-1
7.6%
1-2
5.6%
0-2
4.9%
3-0
3.4%
2-2
3.2%
3-1
2.9%
1-3
1.6%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).