Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →65.9%
Real Madrid
20.4%
Draw
13.7%
Celta
Expected Goals (xG)
2.09
Real Madrid
vs
0.84
Celta
Markets
BTTS50.1%
Over 0.594.3%
Over 1.579.3%
Over 2.556.1%
Over 3.533.7%
Most Likely Scorelines
2-0
11.7%
1-0
10.8%
2-1
9.8%
1-1
9.7%
3-0
8.1%
3-1
6.8%
0-0
5.7%
4-0
4.2%
0-1
4.2%
2-2
4.1%
1-2
3.9%
4-1
3.6%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).