Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →56.6%
Aves
24.8%
Draw
18.6%
Pacos Ferreira
Expected Goals (xG)
1.53
Aves
vs
0.74
Pacos Ferreira
Markets
BTTS40.6%
Over 0.590.2%
Over 1.565.8%
Over 2.539.7%
Over 3.519.5%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-0
16.3%
2-0
12.1%
1-1
11.2%
0-0
9.8%
2-1
9.0%
0-1
8.2%
3-0
6.1%
3-1
4.6%
1-2
4.4%
2-2
3.3%
0-2
2.8%
4-0
2.3%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).