Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →51.1%
Southampton
25.7%
Draw
23.3%
Swansea
Expected Goals (xG)
1.73
Southampton
vs
1.10
Swansea
Markets
BTTS55.9%
Over 0.593.1%
Over 1.578.3%
Over 2.553.7%
Over 3.531.5%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-1
12.2%
2-1
9.7%
1-0
9.3%
2-0
8.8%
0-0
6.9%
1-2
6.2%
3-1
5.6%
0-1
5.6%
2-2
5.3%
3-0
5.1%
0-2
3.6%
3-2
3.1%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).