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21 Aug 2024 · 18:45

Dixon-Coles Prediction

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12.6%
Exmouth
21.2%
Draw
66.2%
Brixham

Expected Goals (xG)

0.63

Exmouth

vs
1.81

Brixham

Markets

BTTS38.8%
Over 0.591.6%
Over 1.569.8%
Over 2.544.1%
Over 3.523.0%

Most Likely Scorelines

0-1
16.1%
0-2
14.3%
1-1
9.6%
1-2
9.0%
0-3
8.6%
0-0
8.4%
1-0
5.8%
1-3
5.4%
0-4
3.9%
2-1
3.1%
2-2
2.8%
1-4
2.5%

Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).