Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →61.3%
Burton
20.3%
Draw
18.3%
Carlisle
Expected Goals (xG)
1.88
Burton
vs
0.90
Carlisle
Markets
BTTS49.2%
Over 0.594.6%
Over 1.575.6%
Over 2.552.4%
Over 3.530.2%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-0
12.6%
2-0
11.0%
2-1
9.9%
1-1
9.6%
3-0
6.9%
0-1
6.5%
3-1
6.2%
0-0
5.4%
1-2
4.7%
2-2
4.4%
4-0
3.2%
4-1
2.9%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).