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AHT: 10CSV

08 May 2021 · 12:30

Dixon-Coles Prediction

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61.9%
Nott'm Forest
24.8%
Draw
13.3%
Preston

Expected Goals (xG)

1.73

Nott'm Forest

vs
0.68

Preston

Markets

BTTS41.5%
Over 0.590.2%
Over 1.570.3%
Over 2.543.4%
Over 3.522.4%

Most Likely Scorelines

1-0
14.6%
2-0
13.5%
1-1
11.4%
0-0
9.8%
2-1
9.1%
3-0
7.8%
3-1
5.3%
0-1
5.2%
1-2
3.6%
4-0
3.4%
2-2
3.1%
4-1
2.3%

Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).