Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →36.4%
Stoke
30.6%
Draw
33.0%
Derby
Expected Goals (xG)
1.18
Stoke
vs
1.11
Derby
Markets
BTTS47.7%
Over 0.588.8%
Over 1.567.9%
Over 2.540.3%
Over 3.520.0%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-1
14.4%
0-0
11.2%
1-0
10.8%
0-1
10.1%
2-1
7.8%
1-2
7.4%
2-0
7.0%
0-2
6.2%
2-2
4.4%
3-1
3.1%
3-0
2.8%
1-3
2.7%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).