Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →7.8%
Arouca
15.2%
Draw
77.0%
Porto
Expected Goals (xG)
0.57
Arouca
vs
2.30
Porto
Markets
BTTS38.5%
Over 0.594.6%
Over 1.577.7%
Over 2.554.6%
Over 3.532.3%
Most Likely Scorelines
0-2
15.1%
0-1
13.4%
0-3
11.6%
1-2
8.5%
1-1
7.1%
0-4
6.7%
1-3
6.5%
0-0
5.4%
1-4
3.8%
1-0
3.5%
0-5
3.1%
2-2
2.4%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).