Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →60.7%
Derby
23.9%
Draw
15.4%
Exeter
Expected Goals (xG)
1.52
Derby
vs
0.60
Exeter
Markets
BTTS34.1%
Over 0.588.8%
Over 1.561.5%
Over 2.535.4%
Over 3.516.4%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-0
19.2%
2-0
13.9%
0-0
11.2%
1-1
10.0%
2-1
8.3%
0-1
8.1%
3-0
7.0%
3-1
4.2%
1-2
3.3%
4-0
2.7%
2-2
2.5%
0-2
2.1%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).