Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →25.2%
Chaves
25.9%
Draw
48.9%
Guimaraes
Expected Goals (xG)
0.93
Chaves
vs
1.42
Guimaraes
Markets
BTTS45.2%
Over 0.590.9%
Over 1.567.3%
Over 2.541.5%
Over 3.520.9%
Most Likely Scorelines
0-1
14.2%
1-1
12.1%
0-2
9.6%
1-0
9.5%
0-0
9.1%
1-2
8.9%
2-1
5.8%
0-3
4.5%
1-3
4.2%
2-2
4.1%
2-0
4.1%
2-3
1.9%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).