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21 Feb 2023 · 19:45

Dixon-Coles Prediction

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60.6%
Notts County
24.0%
Draw
15.4%
Southend

Expected Goals (xG)

1.85

Notts County

vs
0.83

Southend

Markets

BTTS48.4%
Over 0.592.3%
Over 1.575.6%
Over 2.550.1%
Over 3.528.1%

Most Likely Scorelines

1-0
11.8%
2-0
11.7%
1-1
11.4%
2-1
9.7%
0-0
7.7%
3-0
7.2%
3-1
6.0%
0-1
4.8%
1-2
4.4%
2-2
4.0%
4-0
3.3%
4-1
2.8%

Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).