Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →72.4%
Derby
19.0%
Draw
8.6%
Sheffield Wednesday
Expected Goals (xG)
2.18
Derby
vs
0.63
Sheffield Wednesday
Markets
BTTS42.1%
Over 0.593.3%
Over 1.577.7%
Over 2.553.2%
Over 3.531.0%
Most Likely Scorelines
2-0
14.3%
1-0
12.5%
3-0
10.4%
2-1
9.0%
1-1
9.0%
0-0
6.7%
3-1
6.5%
4-0
5.7%
4-1
3.6%
0-1
3.1%
2-2
2.8%
1-2
2.6%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).