Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →41.3%
Setubal
27.6%
Draw
31.1%
Nacional
Expected Goals (xG)
1.21
Setubal
vs
1.01
Nacional
Markets
BTTS44.1%
Over 0.589.8%
Over 1.564.6%
Over 2.538.4%
Over 3.518.6%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-0
13.7%
1-1
12.7%
0-1
11.5%
0-0
10.2%
2-1
8.1%
2-0
8.0%
1-2
6.7%
0-2
5.5%
2-2
4.1%
3-1
3.3%
3-0
3.2%
1-3
2.3%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).