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22 Apr 2017

Dixon-Coles Prediction

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55.8%
Bristol City
26.6%
Draw
17.7%
Barnsley

Expected Goals (xG)

1.63

Bristol City

vs
0.81

Barnsley

Markets

BTTS45.7%
Over 0.590.3%
Over 1.571.0%
Over 2.544.1%
Over 3.523.0%

Most Likely Scorelines

1-0
13.2%
1-1
12.5%
2-0
11.5%
0-0
9.7%
2-1
9.4%
3-0
6.3%
0-1
6.1%
3-1
5.1%
1-2
4.7%
2-2
3.8%
0-2
2.9%
4-0
2.5%

Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).