Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →39.6%
Chaves
30.3%
Draw
30.1%
Tondela
Expected Goals (xG)
1.05
Chaves
vs
0.87
Tondela
Markets
BTTS37.1%
Over 0.585.9%
Over 1.556.5%
Over 2.530.1%
Over 3.512.8%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-0
16.0%
0-0
14.1%
0-1
13.4%
1-1
12.8%
2-0
8.1%
2-1
7.0%
1-2
5.8%
0-2
5.6%
2-2
3.1%
3-0
2.8%
3-1
2.5%
1-3
1.7%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).