Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →54.3%
Nott'm Forest
28.9%
Draw
16.8%
Stoke
Expected Goals (xG)
1.44
Nott'm Forest
vs
0.69
Stoke
Markets
BTTS39.0%
Over 0.587.2%
Over 1.563.9%
Over 2.535.9%
Over 3.516.8%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-0
16.1%
0-0
12.8%
1-1
12.8%
2-0
12.4%
2-1
8.5%
0-1
7.2%
3-0
6.0%
3-1
4.1%
1-2
4.1%
2-2
2.9%
0-2
2.8%
4-0
2.2%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).