Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →30.3%
Reading
17.3%
Draw
52.4%
Carlisle
Expected Goals (xG)
2.21
Reading
vs
2.85
Carlisle
Markets
BTTS83.7%
Over 0.599.5%
Over 1.596.0%
Over 2.588.0%
Over 3.574.3%
Most Likely Scorelines
2-2
6.3%
2-3
6.0%
1-2
5.7%
1-3
5.4%
3-2
4.6%
2-1
4.4%
3-3
4.4%
2-4
4.3%
1-1
3.9%
1-4
3.9%
3-1
3.2%
3-4
3.1%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).