Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →32.2%
Birmingham
30.0%
Draw
37.8%
Millwall
Expected Goals (xG)
1.13
Birmingham
vs
1.24
Millwall
Markets
BTTS49.1%
Over 0.589.5%
Over 1.569.5%
Over 2.542.1%
Over 3.521.4%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-1
14.2%
0-1
10.5%
0-0
10.5%
1-0
9.5%
1-2
8.1%
2-1
7.4%
0-2
7.2%
2-0
5.9%
2-2
4.6%
1-3
3.4%
0-3
3.0%
3-1
2.8%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).