Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →39.7%
Aves
26.8%
Draw
33.5%
Moreirense
Expected Goals (xG)
1.24
Aves
vs
1.11
Moreirense
Markets
BTTS47.2%
Over 0.591.1%
Over 1.567.6%
Over 2.541.9%
Over 3.521.2%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-1
12.5%
1-0
12.3%
0-1
11.1%
0-0
8.9%
2-1
8.1%
1-2
7.3%
2-0
7.3%
0-2
5.9%
2-2
4.5%
3-1
3.4%
3-0
3.0%
1-3
2.7%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).