Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →40.8%
Fiorentina
25.2%
Draw
34.0%
Sassuolo
Expected Goals (xG)
1.43
Fiorentina
vs
1.29
Sassuolo
Markets
BTTS54.9%
Over 0.593.6%
Over 1.575.3%
Over 2.551.2%
Over 3.529.1%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-1
11.9%
1-0
9.6%
2-1
8.7%
0-1
8.7%
1-2
7.8%
2-0
6.8%
0-0
6.4%
2-2
5.6%
0-2
5.4%
3-1
4.2%
1-3
3.4%
3-0
3.2%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).