Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →49.1%
Moreirense
27.5%
Draw
23.4%
Alverca
Expected Goals (xG)
1.50
Moreirense
vs
0.96
Alverca
Markets
BTTS48.8%
Over 0.590.7%
Over 1.571.3%
Over 2.544.7%
Over 3.523.5%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-1
13.0%
1-0
12.0%
2-0
9.6%
0-0
9.3%
2-1
9.2%
0-1
7.4%
1-2
5.9%
3-0
4.8%
3-1
4.6%
2-2
4.4%
0-2
3.9%
3-2
2.2%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).