Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →36.2%
Lugo
31.0%
Draw
32.8%
Cartagena
Expected Goals (xG)
1.01
Lugo
vs
0.94
Cartagena
Markets
BTTS38.7%
Over 0.586.0%
Over 1.558.0%
Over 2.531.1%
Over 3.513.5%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-0
14.4%
0-0
14.0%
0-1
13.5%
1-1
13.4%
2-0
7.2%
2-1
6.8%
1-2
6.4%
0-2
6.3%
2-2
3.2%
3-0
2.4%
3-1
2.3%
1-3
2.0%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).