Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →31.3%
Alverca
30.7%
Draw
38.0%
Vitória Guimarães
Expected Goals (xG)
1.06
Alverca
vs
1.19
Vitória Guimarães
Markets
BTTS46.6%
Over 0.588.5%
Over 1.566.9%
Over 2.539.2%
Over 3.519.1%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-1
14.3%
0-0
11.5%
0-1
11.5%
1-0
10.1%
1-2
7.9%
0-2
7.5%
2-1
7.0%
2-0
5.9%
2-2
4.2%
1-3
3.2%
0-3
3.0%
3-1
2.5%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).