Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →32.4%
Estrela
28.7%
Draw
38.9%
Nacional
Expected Goals (xG)
1.20
Estrela
vs
1.33
Nacional
Markets
BTTS52.4%
Over 0.591.1%
Over 1.572.9%
Over 2.546.4%
Over 3.524.9%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-1
13.7%
0-1
9.6%
0-0
8.9%
1-0
8.5%
1-2
8.5%
2-1
7.6%
0-2
7.1%
2-0
5.7%
2-2
5.1%
1-3
3.8%
0-3
3.2%
3-1
3.0%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).