Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →41.4%
Hartlepool
25.9%
Draw
32.6%
Aldershot
Expected Goals (xG)
1.61
Hartlepool
vs
1.41
Aldershot
Markets
BTTS61.5%
Over 0.594.2%
Over 1.581.4%
Over 2.558.2%
Over 3.535.8%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-1
12.0%
2-1
8.9%
1-2
7.8%
1-0
6.9%
2-0
6.3%
2-2
6.3%
0-1
5.9%
0-0
5.8%
0-2
4.8%
3-1
4.8%
1-3
3.7%
3-0
3.4%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).