Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →48.1%
Valladolid
28.5%
Draw
23.4%
Alcorcon
Expected Goals (xG)
1.29
Valladolid
vs
0.81
Alcorcon
Markets
BTTS40.0%
Over 0.587.9%
Over 1.561.9%
Over 2.535.0%
Over 3.516.1%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-0
16.0%
1-1
12.6%
0-0
12.1%
2-0
10.2%
0-1
10.0%
2-1
8.3%
1-2
5.1%
3-0
4.4%
0-2
4.0%
3-1
3.6%
2-2
3.3%
3-2
1.4%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).