Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →85.1%
Porto
11.1%
Draw
3.8%
Estrela
Expected Goals (xG)
2.59
Porto
vs
0.37
Estrela
Markets
BTTS28.4%
Over 0.595.0%
Over 1.579.2%
Over 2.556.7%
Over 3.534.3%
Most Likely Scorelines
2-0
17.4%
3-0
15.0%
1-0
13.7%
4-0
9.7%
2-1
6.4%
3-1
5.6%
5-0
5.0%
0-0
5.0%
1-1
4.8%
4-1
3.6%
0-1
2.1%
5-1
1.9%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).