Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →79.7%
Sp Braga
13.2%
Draw
7.1%
Alverca
Expected Goals (xG)
2.58
Sp Braga
vs
0.63
Alverca
Markets
BTTS42.8%
Over 0.596.3%
Over 1.582.7%
Over 2.562.2%
Over 3.540.0%
Most Likely Scorelines
2-0
13.4%
3-0
11.6%
1-0
10.7%
2-1
8.4%
4-0
7.5%
3-1
7.3%
1-1
6.3%
4-1
4.7%
5-0
3.9%
0-0
3.7%
0-1
2.8%
2-2
2.7%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).