Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →6.9%
Brighton
10.8%
Draw
82.4%
Chelsea
Expected Goals (xG)
0.87
Brighton
vs
3.19
Chelsea
Markets
BTTS55.4%
Over 0.598.4%
Over 1.591.1%
Over 2.576.9%
Over 3.557.6%
Most Likely Scorelines
0-3
9.4%
0-2
8.8%
1-3
8.1%
1-2
7.6%
0-4
7.5%
1-4
6.5%
0-1
5.7%
0-5
4.8%
1-1
4.6%
1-5
4.1%
2-3
3.5%
2-2
3.3%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).