Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →38.0%
Brighton
30.0%
Draw
32.0%
Aston Villa
Expected Goals (xG)
1.35
Brighton
vs
1.22
Aston Villa
Markets
BTTS54.0%
Over 0.590.6%
Over 1.574.5%
Over 2.547.5%
Over 3.525.8%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-1
14.3%
0-0
9.4%
1-0
8.6%
2-1
8.5%
1-2
7.7%
0-1
7.6%
2-0
7.0%
0-2
5.7%
2-2
5.2%
3-1
3.8%
1-3
3.1%
3-0
3.1%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).