Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →29.1%
Tondela
35.3%
Draw
35.6%
Santa Clara
Expected Goals (xG)
0.70
Tondela
vs
0.81
Santa Clara
Markets
BTTS27.6%
Over 0.578.6%
Over 1.544.2%
Over 2.519.5%
Over 3.56.8%
Most Likely Scorelines
0-0
21.4%
0-1
18.4%
1-0
16.0%
1-1
12.0%
0-2
7.3%
2-0
5.4%
1-2
5.1%
2-1
4.4%
0-3
2.0%
2-2
1.8%
1-3
1.4%
3-0
1.3%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).