Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →67.9%
Crystal Palace
22.5%
Draw
9.5%
Watford
Expected Goals (xG)
1.96
Crystal Palace
vs
0.62
Watford
Markets
BTTS41.0%
Over 0.591.2%
Over 1.574.2%
Over 2.547.7%
Over 3.526.0%
Most Likely Scorelines
2-0
14.6%
1-0
13.6%
1-1
10.5%
3-0
9.5%
2-1
9.0%
0-0
8.8%
3-1
5.9%
4-0
4.7%
0-1
3.4%
4-1
2.9%
1-2
2.9%
2-2
2.8%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).