Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →88.0%
Benfica
8.1%
Draw
3.9%
Arouca
Expected Goals (xG)
3.34
Benfica
vs
0.61
Arouca
Markets
BTTS44.1%
Over 0.598.2%
Over 1.590.3%
Over 2.575.4%
Over 3.555.6%
Most Likely Scorelines
3-0
11.9%
2-0
10.7%
4-0
9.9%
3-1
7.3%
5-0
6.6%
1-0
6.6%
2-1
6.6%
4-1
6.1%
5-1
4.1%
1-1
3.8%
3-2
2.2%
2-2
2.0%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).