Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →29.2%
Manchester City
29.4%
Draw
41.4%
Arsenal
Expected Goals (xG)
1.18
Manchester City
vs
1.44
Arsenal
Markets
BTTS54.5%
Over 0.591.0%
Over 1.575.3%
Over 2.548.6%
Over 3.526.8%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-1
14.1%
0-0
9.0%
1-2
8.9%
0-1
8.8%
0-2
7.6%
2-1
7.3%
1-0
6.9%
2-2
5.2%
2-0
5.1%
1-3
4.3%
0-3
3.6%
3-1
2.9%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).