Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →45.9%
Derby
25.9%
Draw
28.1%
Hull
Expected Goals (xG)
1.67
Derby
vs
1.27
Hull
Markets
BTTS59.2%
Over 0.593.7%
Over 1.580.0%
Over 2.556.2%
Over 3.533.8%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-1
12.2%
2-1
9.4%
1-0
7.9%
2-0
7.4%
1-2
7.1%
0-0
6.3%
2-2
5.9%
0-1
5.8%
3-1
5.2%
0-2
4.3%
3-0
4.1%
3-2
3.3%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).