Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →85.7%
Hamburg
9.5%
Draw
4.8%
Erzgebirge Aue
Expected Goals (xG)
3.59
Hamburg
vs
0.87
Erzgebirge Aue
Markets
BTTS56.9%
Over 0.598.5%
Over 1.594.0%
Over 2.582.2%
Over 3.565.1%
Most Likely Scorelines
3-0
8.9%
4-0
8.0%
3-1
7.8%
2-0
7.5%
4-1
7.0%
2-1
6.5%
5-0
5.7%
5-1
5.0%
1-1
4.0%
1-0
3.8%
3-2
3.4%
4-2
3.0%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).