Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →20.3%
Burton
20.1%
Draw
59.6%
Cardiff
Expected Goals (xG)
1.02
Burton
vs
1.94
Cardiff
Markets
BTTS54.0%
Over 0.595.7%
Over 1.578.7%
Over 2.556.9%
Over 3.534.5%
Most Likely Scorelines
0-1
10.9%
1-2
9.9%
0-2
9.7%
1-1
9.4%
1-3
6.4%
0-3
6.3%
1-0
6.1%
2-1
5.2%
2-2
5.1%
0-0
4.3%
2-3
3.3%
1-4
3.1%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).