Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →59.5%
Santander
20.8%
Draw
19.7%
Vallecano
Expected Goals (xG)
2.04
Santander
vs
1.09
Vallecano
Markets
BTTS57.6%
Over 0.595.7%
Over 1.581.8%
Over 2.560.5%
Over 3.538.1%
Most Likely Scorelines
2-1
9.9%
1-1
9.6%
2-0
9.1%
1-0
9.0%
3-1
6.7%
3-0
6.2%
2-2
5.4%
1-2
5.3%
0-1
4.9%
0-0
4.3%
3-2
3.7%
4-1
3.4%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).