Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →35.9%
Crawley Town
26.6%
Draw
37.5%
Carlisle
Expected Goals (xG)
1.19
Crawley Town
vs
1.22
Carlisle
Markets
BTTS48.5%
Over 0.591.5%
Over 1.568.8%
Over 2.543.2%
Over 3.522.3%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-1
12.5%
0-1
11.5%
1-0
11.2%
0-0
8.5%
1-2
8.0%
2-1
7.7%
0-2
6.7%
2-0
6.4%
2-2
4.7%
1-3
3.2%
3-1
3.1%
0-3
2.7%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).