Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →64.5%
Lazio
22.9%
Draw
12.6%
Monza
Expected Goals (xG)
1.69
Lazio
vs
0.59
Monza
Markets
BTTS36.1%
Over 0.590.0%
Over 1.566.3%
Over 2.539.9%
Over 3.519.7%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-0
17.5%
2-0
14.7%
0-0
10.0%
1-1
10.0%
2-1
8.6%
3-0
8.3%
0-1
6.2%
3-1
4.9%
4-0
3.5%
1-2
3.0%
2-2
2.5%
4-1
2.1%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).