Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →45.0%
Santa Clara
26.8%
Draw
28.2%
Arouca
Expected Goals (xG)
1.32
Santa Clara
vs
0.98
Arouca
Markets
BTTS45.0%
Over 0.590.5%
Over 1.566.2%
Over 2.540.2%
Over 3.519.9%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-0
13.9%
1-1
12.4%
0-1
10.4%
0-0
9.5%
2-0
8.8%
2-1
8.5%
1-2
6.3%
0-2
4.8%
2-2
4.2%
3-0
3.8%
3-1
3.7%
1-3
2.1%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).