Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →76.5%
Benfica
15.5%
Draw
8.0%
Guimaraes
Expected Goals (xG)
2.28
Benfica
vs
0.57
Guimaraes
Markets
BTTS38.9%
Over 0.594.6%
Over 1.577.5%
Over 2.554.4%
Over 3.532.1%
Most Likely Scorelines
2-0
15.0%
1-0
13.4%
3-0
11.4%
2-1
8.6%
1-1
7.2%
3-1
6.5%
4-0
6.5%
0-0
5.4%
4-1
3.7%
0-1
3.6%
5-0
3.0%
2-2
2.5%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).