Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →23.7%
Burnley
26.2%
Draw
50.1%
Brighton
Expected Goals (xG)
1.19
Burnley
vs
1.79
Brighton
Markets
BTTS59.5%
Over 0.593.4%
Over 1.581.3%
Over 2.557.3%
Over 3.534.9%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-1
12.3%
1-2
9.7%
0-2
8.2%
0-1
7.6%
0-0
6.6%
2-1
6.4%
1-3
5.8%
2-2
5.8%
0-3
4.9%
1-0
4.5%
2-0
3.6%
2-3
3.4%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).